The Nature of Israel Military Operation in Lebanon
The Nature of Israel Military Operation in Lebanon
Zionist Regime on December 4, 2018, announced the start of an operation with the name of North Cross-border and claimed the goal of this operation is to have access to tunnels of Hezbollah of Lebanon. While TV channel of 10 of this regime announced that this decision has been made on security cabinet and in the main base of the army of Israel, Immediately after announcing this news, it was widely published and some defined it as Israel’s attempts to start a new war and some called it a usual action. Regarding this there are some important notes:
1- It has not been a long time from the last confrontation of the Zionist Regime with a part of the resistance front. Early morning in the last November 13 requested for the cease-fire in 36 hours fight. This cease-fire was that much important that Netanyahu preferred internal critics to the continuation of confrontation. So according to our late experience, these actions of the Zionist Regime are not indicators of a war.
2- The Army of Zionist Regime has claimed there are tunnels in the northern parts of Palestine near the borders of Lebanon and his attempts are to neutralize future actions of Hezbollah while as the Syrian war proved, Hezbollah does not necessarily need tunnels to confront the enemy. In fact, in the Syrian war, Hezbollah conquered the enemy without tunnels tactic. It seems that the army of Israel is well aware of this and general secretary of Hezbollah had formally informed that in possible future wars they won’t use the same strategies. So this question arises that what is the real goal of Zionists by the operation that they have called it the operation of having access to tunnels of Hezbollah of Lebanon? It seems that the Zionist regime follows some goals at the same time:
- Searching operation in the north which includes north of Haifa to the borders of Lebanon which is 80 kilometers long and 40 kilometers wide can be a military practice.
- It can be a renewing of defense strategy and adaptation of strategies with new security conditions of the region.
- Hamas’s experience in the last war and it’s long firing in the region with 30 kilometers of wide and 50 kilometers in length showed that Hamas is capable for firing more than what has done, and can practically disconnect north with the center of this regime as it did in the operation of “Gaza Pods” which disconnected this region from the center. So the army needs to study the region and prepare new soldiers who have joined the army in the last 12 years.
- This region is more vulnerable than Gaza, because Hezbollah in Lebanon is not in the siege like Hamas in the Gaza and Hezbollah has the connection to its strategic depth in Syria, also Hezbollah is located in the heights, and north of Palestine is under feet of its influence while in Gaza, Hamas was on the flat ground and heights were under control of Israel. But is the Zionist Regime waiting to start a war by Hezbollah or is Israel willing to start a war against Hezbollah?
3- 33 days war balanced security conditions of Israel and Hezbollah. It means that it made a kind of defense and military Equality between them. The strategy of both was deterrence and each of them had considerations and obligations in making a war. When the Syrian war started- which was a world war Unlike what the west tries to call it a civil war- Israel supposed this war will reduce the power of Hezbollah and will influence its position inside the country but former chief of Israeli security service, Meir Dagan had said the Syrian crisis will swallow the Hezbollah and nothing will remain, the war process did not go as he predicted and Hezbollah could manage the war and won it.
The powerful and influential presence of Hezbollah in the Syrian crisis created two important security and political consequences that were unbelievable for leaders and especially the generals of the Zionist regime.
- Its first consequence was in the security arena and military position. Before the Syrian war, Hezbollah only in a part of Lebanon had influence and this influence could not spill over other Shia parts of Lebanon. On the other hand, there were powerful opposing members in the government of Hezbollah and because of that Hezbollah could not rely on the government so overall it was a limited Hezbollah. Influential presence of Hezbollah in Syria and conquering against the enemy removed the two barriers. Now Hezbollah has an optimal geographical position and also has the support of the Syrian government. So Hezbollah in Syria is not the same as Hezbollah in Lebanon.
- The second consequence of the victory of Hezbollah in Syria is its prominent political success in the elections of Lebanon. Before this election, Hezbollah had a minimum presence in the parliament and cabinet of government and its maximum capability was preventing some security decisions of its opponents. After 33 days war Hezbollah only had a third guarantor in the parliament and government and could not expect more. If Hezbollah had failed in the Syrian crisis it would destroy its political future but with the unexpected victory of Hezbollah in this war, Hezbollah's political position was consolidated and enhanced there. After the election of last April, 75 members of 120 members of parliament are allied with Hezbollah and it means 62 percent of parliament. It is why Saad Hariri is emphasizing on neglecting elected Hezbollah Sunnis to reduce the influence of Hezbollah in the government; this has been a challenge in the formation of the new cabinet of Hariri. So we can say that the Zionist regime is afraid of the new situation of Hezbollah in Lebanon and Syria.
4- Zionist regime believes that ceasefire will increase the strength of the resistance in the region. Hence, while this regime is still refraining from launching a war against Hezbollah, at the same time assumes security stability as a major danger to itself. The regime believes it should prevent the war and its expenses and also this regime believes that long cease-fires are making resistance more powerful. So the regime ignites security Inflammation but this ignition doesn’t lead to a war and its aim is to prevent increasing of the power of resistance. Hence, we see that Israel in Gaza does the same thing as it has done on the Golan Heights. And on the Golan Heights it does the same thing it does in southern Lebanon. It means flipping to the security and swiping up its scope. In all three, the ordering of the Israeli military forces is minimal and at the same time, it is intimidating.
The Zionist regime at the highest level of decision-making shows it doesn’t have any plan to enter an intense and time-consuming war. During the Gaza war, the Israeli security cabinet and even Avigdor Lieberman, who resigned from war ministry to protest to Netanyahu's decision of hostilities and had voted to stop the operation and agreed to begin negotiations with Hamas! In the operation of North Cross-border in the north of Palestine although they have said it is because of Hezbollah but they have also announced that the aim of the operation is to close the offensive tunnels of Hezbollah in the north of Palestine. The same goes for actions of Israeli usurper in Syria. Israel army after the crash of a Russian airplane which killed 18 people of the air forces of Russia has stopped his flights in the sky of Syria. These show that Israel continues to pursue the policy of incitement and frightening the opponent and raising its costs. This is the policy of regime and military which cannot win the fight and has no choice but to try to control the opponent.
Dean of Strategic Studies Institute of Andishe Sazane Noor
Translated by: Tohid Mohammadzadeh
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